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Prediction for CME (2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-15T15:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41801/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and the north in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a region of dimming seen centered at approximately S05W30 beginning at approximately 2025-10-15T14:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI and STEREO A EUVI 195. This dimming is also accompanied by wide opening field lines seen in GOES SUVI 195, 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-18T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-18T06:52Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-10-15 20:50
 - Time at C2: 2025-10-15 15:36
 - Radial speed: 712.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N09W44
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 619.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-10-18 06:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.28 hours)
Lead Time: 41.50 hour(s)
Difference: -1.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-10-16T11:45Z
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